Strategic Port Performance Analysis in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Multiple Linear Regression Study of Economic Drivers in Ýskenderun, Botaþ, and Mersin Ports

This study analyzes the current performance and forecasts future demand for the strategic Eastern Mediterranean ports of Ýskenderun, Botaþ, and Mersin, which are vital for Türkiye’s international trade and energy logistics. The research aims to identify economic drivers influencing port performance and guide infrastructure and investment strategies. With rising competition between Mersin and Ýskenderun, the study evaluates how these ports can meet future cargo demands and what growth strategies are appropriate. Data were collected from port authorities and national sources, including gross domestic product, population, exports, and imports. Key performance indicators such as gross tonnage, stevedoring activity, container capacity, and vessel numbers were assessed. Using multiple linear regression, the study projected port performance over ten years with a 2% annual growth in economic indicators. Results show that in Ýskenderun, population growth has a strong positive effect on gross tonnage (coefficient=5.79, p<0.01, R2=0.99), highlighting Ýskenderun’s cost-efficient logistics. Mersin demonstrates notable container capacity growth (R2=0.95); driven also by population growth. In contrast, Botaþ shows weaker correlations (R2<0.51), likely due to operational limits. The study recommends improving hinterland infrastructure in Ýskenderun and expanding capacity in Mersin. Future studies should further investigate Botaþ’s constraints.