Probability Theory Analysis of Maritime Piracy and the Implications for Maritime Security Governance

The objective of this study was to determine the empirical probability coefficients of pirate attacks on ships in various sea regions, individual ship types, and the occurrence probability scores of trauma associated with hostage-taking, injury, death, kidnap for ransom, missing, and threats to the lives of crew members effected by pirate attacks on ships. Secondary data on the frequency of pirate attacks on ships trading in various regions of the world were obtained from the International Maritime Bureau. The data covered 10 years, that is, between 2011 and 2020, and were analyzed using the empirical probability statistical method implemented with the MATLAB software. Results showed that Southeast Asian and African waters have the highest empirical probability coefficients of 0.40 and 0.39, respectively, and are most prone to pirate attacks on ships. Trauma associated with hostage-taking of the ship’s crew has the highest probability coefficient and likelihood of occurrence of 0.76 compared with other effects of piracy affecting the ship’s crew. Kidnap for ransom is second with an occurrence probability of 0.15. Chemical and product tankers have the highest likelihood of a pirate attack, with an occurrence probability of 0.26, followed by bulk carriers, crude oil tankers, container vessels, general cargo ships, LPG tankers, and trawler fishing vessels, with empirical probabilities of 0.24, 0.11, 0.11, 0.06, 0.04, and 0.02, respectively. The implications for maritime security governance were discussed.